2020年5月7日星期四

Memory pricing is also predictable

predicting memory prices is more difficult, but not so difficult. Memory prices tended to flatten during the shortage, and began to collapse when oversupply caused costs to fall. If you understand what costs are, and know when shortages and oversupply may occur, you can predict prices.
The historical trend line of the price per GB of DRAM: As a result of today ’s events, there is a shortage of demand, and the result will be oversupply, which will cause prices to fall. Once demand catches up with supply, prices will be higher than costs.
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The market will eventually recover
This leads us to expect 2020 to be a year of decline in the chip market, but this is what Objective Analysis has predicted based on excessive capital expenditures in 2018. The expected oversupply driven by capital expenditures will be accompanied by a decline in demand that will cause more direct damage to semiconductor revenues.
This situation will not continue. Since demand may return to the trend line, due to insufficient capital expenditures, we have predicted that future shortages may occur on time. The net impact of COVID-19 will cause the 2020 economic recession to occur earlier than originally expected, but the impact cannot exceed this.
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